Over the past few months, the US administration has imposed a near-total economic embargo on Cuba, aiming to force regime change, begging the question of how far will Washington go. Will the US resort to military action?

Since the current administration took office, it has aggressively reasserted American primacy over the Western Hemisphere. Officials call this strategy the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. It explicitly seeks to restore American preeminence in the region, justified as a “common-sense and potent restoration of American power and priorities.” 

This doctrine is already manifest through public, disruptive actions: ending the Maduro regime in Venezuela, pressuring Panama, using deadly force against alleged drug traffickers, and accelerating migrant deportations. 

So, what about Cuba?

Washington has spent decades trying to isolate and undermine the island's regime. What is different now is the execution of "maximum pressure." The current administration has restored Cuba’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, severely tightened travel, and prohibited monetary transactions with government institutions. Crucially, the US declared that any country engaging in economic transactions with the Cuban regime would face secondary sanctions. 

The pressure intensified on May 20th when the US indicted Raúl Castro for the 1996 downing of two "Brothers to the Rescue" airplanes, which killed three U.S. citizens. Furthermore, because Cuba lacks domestic oil fields, the removal of Venezuela's Maduro ended the delivery of subsidized oil that had sustained the island since 2000. This energy embargo has plunged Cuba into near-total blackouts. 

Considering that Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s long-term personal goal has been to end the regime, this energy strangulation seemed intended to spark a popular uprising or trigger a government collapse. Neither has happened. Instead, in a surprising pivot on June 10th, the US government authorized a US-based broker to supply oil directly to private entities on the island, perhaps indicating a negotiated opening.

This pivot reflects that the US is perhaps considering a terrifying prospect: a total Cuban collapse that could be catastrophic. First, it could trigger a mass exodus rivaling the migration crises of the 1980s or 1990s. Second, in the absence of a stable military, local and international criminal organizations could carve up the country, creating a failed state on America's doorstep.

Why should this matter to Kentuckians?

While the state lacks deep economic links to the island, roughly 60,000 people of Cuban descent call Kentucky home, heavily concentrated in the Louisville area. Arriving in waves since the 1980 Mariel boatlift, they have become an integral part of our state’s growth and diversity. What happens in Havana directly impacts the families, history, and fabric of this vital Kentucky community. 

While the president wants to reassert regional dominance, direct military action against Cuba remains unlikely. Cuba boasts an entrenched, ideologically rigid regime, lacks the lucrative resources that attract presidential interest, and faces an American public grown weary of foreign military adventurism. Ultimately, while Trump’s main goal is halting migration, Rubio’s is changing the regime, leaving the US’s Cuba policy without a clear destination.