The US is locked in a standoff with Iran. Both the first and the current Trump administrations used a "maximum pressure" strategy, combining economic sanctions with military strikes, to force Iran to give up its nuclear weapons program and stop funding proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Despite the pressure, Iran is digging in, not giving up.

To understand how we got here, we have to look back to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. That agreement froze Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions. Critics argued the deal gave away too much and only delayed the threat. Furthermore, it did not eliminate the ballistic missile program or defund the proxies in the region. When the first Trump administration pulled out of the deal, they promised that harsher sanctions would force Iran to make a better one.

The Biden administration couldn't reenergize the 2015 agreement, and today, the second Trump administration has doubled down on maximum pressure. By now, the current US administration has twice “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program and its military capabilities. Yet, the strategy relies on a flawed assumption: that if you inflict enough pain, the enemy will yield.

Iran’s tolerance for pain is very high. Sanctions haven't worked. The assassination of their military leaders didn't work. The destruction of their navy and air force didn’t work.  Instead of backing down, Iran has used its geographic leverage to strike back. By threatening the Strait of Hormuz and using the Houthis to threaten the Red Sea, Iran is choking global trade. This isn't just a Middle Eastern problem. It is global. 

What does this mean for Kentucky? Gas prices are the most obvious. However, it is most significant for Kentucky's large rural population, where workers face long daily commutes and have no public transit alternatives. When Houthi rebels attack container ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea, ships must avoid the Suez Canal and take a massive detour around the southern tip of Africa. These increase freight fees, which are passed down to consumers. Local assembly plants rely heavily on global supply chains, where delays in receiving critical components throw off production schedules. Lastly, it affects the production, supply, and cost of fertilizers, which increases the price of food.

The US is now at a stalemate. President Trump ran on a campaign of "no more wars," but maximum pressure has left the US with only two real choices: launch a massive, full-scale military campaign to take down the Iranian regime, or swallow its pride and negotiate a new diplomatic deal. If we aren't willing to fight the war needed to change the outcome, it's time to admit that force alone isn't working. Which tactic can get the best result for the US?