The war in Ukraine began four years ago with a brazen act of Russian conquest. Armed with a massive army and supposedly advanced hardware, Russia expected a quick victory. It planned to capture Kyiv, crush Ukrainian identity, halt NATO expansion, and declare itself a resurrected superpower.

Instead, the world has witnessed a farce.

Despite losing territory, Ukraine has maintained its independence. Its national identity is stronger than ever. NATO has expanded, and Russia stands humiliated. In short, Russia is losing because it did not win. Ukraine is winning because it has not lost.

How did a country a fraction of Russia's size achieve this? Through the art of asymmetric warfare.

When a massive army attacks a smaller nation, it relies on sheer numbers, heavy hardware, and speed. This often creates overconfidence, or hubris. The smaller nation cannot match this brute force. Instead, it must survive by exploiting the invader’s weaknesses. Where the enemy is fast, you make them slow. Where they come with a fortified column, do not face them; you attack from their weak side, above or behind.

Russia advanced along Ukrainian roads, only to get bogged down and repelled. Its modern tanks broke down or were systematically destroyed. Ukraine stalled an army four times its size. Today, Russian soldiers die at a far higher rate than they can be replaced. 

Even more stunningly, Ukraine has neutralized Russia's navy and air force. A country with no navy destroyed one-third of Russia's Black Sea fleet. A country with almost no air force grounded the Russian Air Force. 

Ukraine achieved this by launching a cheap, homegrown drone revolution. Through operations like "Spider Web," Ukraine uses drones smuggled in trucks to strike heavy bombers deep inside Russia. It has effectively created a whole new branch of the military operating on land, sea, and air. 

Rather than hitting Russia's heavy armor head-on, Ukraine strikes where it hurts most: the wallet. Despite sanctions, Russia relies on oil to fund its war. So, Ukraine uses cheap drones to cripple Russian oil refineries and pipelines.

The Atlantic Council summarizes the Ukrainian strategy this way. First, Ukraine seeks to maintain its independence, strategic autonomy, and Western alignment. Second, it seeks to degrade the Russian economy by dislocating oil production and imposing high costs (in men and money) on the war. Third, it seeks to disrupt Russian war logistics. Fourth, it seeks to isolate Crimea. 

At the moment, the front is at a stalemate. However, based on this comparison, we can say that Russia is not winning because it cannot force a surrender. This is a strategic defeat. On the other hand, despite the Russian territorial occupation, Ukraine is winning simply because it is still standing.

Jose E. Mora, PhD, is a former Professor and Chair of Global Affairs of the American University of Phnom Penh in Cambodia. Mora and his wife, Melissa, recently moved to Berea in order to be closer to their four adult children.