The recent escalation in conflict with Iran has revived a term that has been misunderstood in foreign policy circles: "regime survival." While the current US administration frequently discusses "regime change," it has not discussed the mechanics of how a regime stays in power. Understanding this distinction is not just academic; it is vital for realistic diplomacy.

As we have previously explored, a "regime" is the set of formal and informal rules that dictate who governs and how power is exercised. While democracies rely on elections and accountability for legitimacy, authoritarian states like the Islamic Republic of Iran face a different set of challenges. Because their biggest threats are internal, the survival strategies for authoritarian states are rooted in three pillars: coercion, co-optation, and legitimation.

The architecture of coercion

Among the tools of physical coercion are repression, limitation of civil liberties, and coup-proofing. The first two can be easily understood and recognized. On the other hand, “coup-proofing” goes beyond those. 

The Iranian regime has mastered coup-proofing, the practice of structuring domestic institutions to prevent the military or other elites from threatening the leadership. The primary instrument for this is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Unlike a traditional military, the IRGC is an ideological branch that reports directly to the Supreme Leader. Its reach is total: it controls intelligence, political prisons, and weapons production, while simultaneously managing the "Axis of Resistance" abroad. To ensure its survival, the regime has purposefully decentralized the IRGC’s use-of-force authority, making the system resilient against "decapitation" strikes that might target central leadership. At the grassroots level, the Basij paramilitary force enforces social codes and monitors the population, ensuring the revolution is protected in every community.

These measures, when combined, have an immediate effect. Any challenge at any level can be met with violence.

Buying loyalty and manufacturing consent

Beyond physical force, the regime utilizes co-optation. By controlling important sectors of the economy (including imports, exports, and licenses), the state uses patronage to buy the loyalty of the elite. Even the veneer of democracy, through controlled elections for the presidency and legislature, serves as a pressure valve to grant certain elites a stake in the system’s continuity.

Finally, the regime leans on legitimation. Through state-controlled media and education, the government "spins" its policy failures and delivers targeted propaganda to maintain a base of support. This ideological framework, combined with a willingness to deliver on promises to key constituencies, creates a remarkably durable structure.

The reality of resilience

The Islamic Republic is not a fragile newcomer. It has survived 47 years of pressure, including an eight-year war with Iraq, crippling international sanctions, and threats from the Soviet Union, the US, and Israel alike. Most importantly, it has weathered multiple waves of mass public protest. A regime that governs 93 million people and demonstrates a willingness to kill thousands of its own citizens to maintain order is not one on the verge of collapse.

History shows that while authoritarian states like the former Soviet Union can eventually fall, such collapses are almost always due to internal affairs. Iran has studied these historical lessons carefully and mitigated the conditions that lead to such implosions.

For US policymakers, the conclusion should be clear: the Iranian regime is profoundly resilient. The US must operate under the assumption that this government will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Any strategy built on the hope of an imminent internal collapse is not a policy; it is a mirage.

What in the World?! addresses current world affairs with an eye toward discussing how international events impact Kentuckians. To help keep the column grounded in Kentucky, please send me your comments or questions: jose.e.mora.torres@gmail.com.

Jose E. Mora, PhD, is a former Professor and Chair of Global Affairs of the American University of Phnom Penh in Cambodia. Mora and his wife, Melissa, recently moved to Berea in order to be closer to their four adult children.